Testing the correlation between mean reversion process and grey system theory for metal price forecasting

Test korelacije između procesa povratka na srednju vrednost i teorije sivog sistema u svrhu prognoze cene metala

  • Zoran Gligorić University of Belgrade – Faculty of Mining and Geology http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4532-8694
  • Jelena Milojević University of Belgrade – Faculty of Mining and Geology
  • Čedomir Beljić University of Belgrade – Faculty of Mining and Geology
Keywords: metal price; uncertainty; Mean Reversion Process; Grey System Theory; Intra-class Correlation Coefficient


  There are typically many of variables, which are directly or indirectly associated with the value of underground mine project. Having the ability to plan for uncertainties of input variables is increasingly recognized as critical to longterm mining project success. Large capital intensive projects, such as those in the mineral resource industry, are often associated with diverse sources of both internal and external uncertainties. One of the most external influencing uncertainties is related to the future states of metal price. There are many methods which are applied to forecast the future metal prices, but Mean Reversion Process is one of the most applying methods. This paper analyzes the possibility of using of Grey System Theory to metal price forecasting by examining the correlation between results obtained by these two methods. Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is used as a measure of reliability.


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How to Cite
Gligorić, Z., Milojević, J., & Beljić, Čedomir. (2017). Testing the correlation between mean reversion process and grey system theory for metal price forecasting. Podzemni Radovi, (24), 61-71. https://doi.org/10.5937/podrad1424061G