OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE 21st CENTURY: A REVIEW OF KEY FACTORS AND EVENTS

Nikoleta Aleksić; Milica Janković

Nikoleta Aleksić University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9617-108X
Milica Janković NTC - NIS - Naftagas, Novi Sad, Serbia

Keywords: crude oil, natural gas, energy markets, price volatility, geopolitical risk, global economy

Abstract

This paper analyzes key factors and events in the 21st century that have determined the dynamics of crude oil and natural gas prices on the global market. Particular emphasis is placed on geopolitical and macroeconomic factors that have influenced shifts in supply-demand balance, as well as the emergence of increased volatility in energy markets. The study examines the Iraq War and the U.S. military intervention, the Arab Spring, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and contemporary tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. These events, through disruptions in production, transportation, and global energy flows, have significantly affected price formation and market structures in both oil and natural gas markets. The results indicate that geopolitical and structural factors play a dominant role in shaping both short-term volatility and long-term trends in energy markets, with their effects directly reflected in global economic stability and energy security.

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